TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic Forecasting of Real-Time LMP and Network Congestion
JF - IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Y1 - 2016/07//
A1 - Yuting Ji
A1 - Robert J. Thomas
A1 - Lang Tong
KW - RM13-002
AB - The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability distribution of the real-time LMP/congestion is obtained. The proposed method incorporates load/generation forecast, time varying operation constraints, and contingency models. By shifting the computation associated with multiparametric programs offline, the online computational cost is significantly reduced. An online simulation technique by generating critical regions dynamically is also proposed, which results in several orders of magnitude improvement in the computational cost over standard Monte Carlo methods.
JO - IEEE Trans. Power Syst.
DO - 10.1109/TPWRS.2016.2592380
ER -
TY - CONF
T1 - Probabilistic Forecast of Real-Time LMP via Multiparametric Programming
T2 - 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS)
Y1 - 2015/01//
A1 - Yuting Ji
A1 - Robert J. Thomas
A1 - Lang Tong
KW - CERTS
KW - locational marginal pricing
KW - reliability and markets
KW - RM13-002
AB - The problem of short-term probabilistic forecast of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) is considered. A new forecast technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability mass function of the real-time LMP is estimated using Monte Carlo techniques. The proposed methodology incorporates uncertainty models such as load and stochastic generation forecasts and system contingency models. With the use of offline computation of multiparametric linear programming, online computation cost is significantly reduced.
JF - 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS)
PB - IEEE
CY - Kauai, HI
UR - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=7070121&refinements%3D4260156971%26filter%3DAND%28p_IS_Number%3A7069647%29
DO - 10.1109/HICSS.2015.306
ER -