TY - RPRT
T1 - Probabilistic Load-Dependent Cascading Failure with Limited Component Interactions
Y1 - 2004/05//
SP - 4
A1 - Ian Dobson
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - David E. Newman
KW - AA01-001
KW - AARD
KW - CERTS
KW - System Security Tools
AB - We generalize an analytically solvable probabilistic model of cascading failure in which failing components interact with other components by increasing their load and hence their chance of failure. In the generalized model, instead of a failing component increasing the load of all components, it increases the load of a random sample of the components. The size of the sample describes the extent of component interactions within the system. The generalized model is approximated by a saturating branching process and this leads to a criticality condition for cascading failure propagation that depends on the size of the sample. The criticality condition shows how the extent of component interactions controls the proximity to catastrophic cascading failure. Implications for the complexity of power transmission system design to avoid cascading blackouts are briefly discussed.
DO - 10.1109/ISCAS.2004.1329957
ER -
TY - CONF
T1 - Blackout mitigation assessment in power transmission systems
T2 - 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS)
Y1 - 2003/01//
SP - 10 pp.
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - Lynch, V.E.
A1 - David E. Newman
A1 - Ian Dobson
KW - AA01-001
KW - CERTS
KW - RTINA
AB - Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions with power tails. This is an indication that blackout dynamics behave as a complex dynamical system. Here, we investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power tails. Thus, while the absolute frequency of disruptions of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large disruptions to small disruptions to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions can even increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics.
JF - 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS)
PB - IEEE
CY - Big Island, HI, USA
SN - 0-7695-1874-5
DO - 10.1109/HICSS.2003.1173911
ER -
TY - Generic
T1 - A Probabilistic Loading-dependent Model of Cascading Failure and Possible Implications for Blackouts
T2 - Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
Y1 - 2003/01//
SP - 9
A1 - Ian Dobson
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - David E. Newman
KW - AA01-001
KW - AARD
KW - CERTS
KW - power interruptions
KW - RTGRM
KW - System Security Tools
AB - A model has been developed to study the global complex dynamics of a series of blackouts in power transmission systems. This model has included a simple level of self-organization by incorporating the growth of power demand and the engineering response to system failures. Two types of blackouts have been identified with different dynamical properties. One type of blackout involves loss of load due to lines reaching their load limits but no line outages. The second type of blackout is associated with multiple line outages. The dominance of one type of blackouts versus the other depends on operational conditions and the proximity of the system to one of its two critical points. The first critical point is characterized by operation with lines close to their line limits. The second critical point is characterized by the maximum in the fluctuations of the load demand being near the generator margin capability. The identification of this second critical point is an indication that the increase of the generator capability as a response to the increase of the load demand must be included in the dynamical model to achieve a higher degree of self-organization. When this is done, the model shows a probability distribution of blackout sizes with power tails similar to that observed in real blackout data from North America.
JF - Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences
DO - 10.1109/HICSS.2003.1173909
ER -
TY - RPRT
T1 - Dynamics, Criticality, and Self-organization in a Model for Blackouts in Power Transmission Systems
Y1 - 2002/01//
SP - 10
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - Ian Dobson
A1 - David E. Newman
KW - AA01-001
KW - AARD
KW - CERTS
KW - System Security Tools
AB - Catastrophic disruptions of large, interconnected infrastructure systems are often due to cascading failure. For example, large blackouts of electric power systems are typically caused by cascading failure of heavily loaded system components. We introduce the CASCADE model of cascading failure of a system with many identical components randomly loaded. An initial disturbance causes some components to fail by exceeding their loading limit. Failure of a component causes a fixed load increase for other components. As components fail, the system becomes more loaded and cascading failure of further components becomes likely. The probability distribution of the number of failed components is an extended quasibinomial distribution. Explicit formulas for the extended quasibinomial distribution are derived using a recursion. The CASCADE model in a restricted parameter range gives a new model yielding the quasibinomial distribution. Some qualitative behaviors of the extended quasibinomial distribution are illustrated, including regimes with power tails, exponential tails, and significant probabilities of total system failure.
DO - 10.1109/HICSS.2002.993976
ER -
TY - RPRT
T1 - Examining Criticality of Blackouts in Power System Models with Cascading Events
Y1 - 2002/01//
SP - 10
A1 - Ian Dobson
A1 - Jie Chen
A1 - James S. Thorp
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - David E. Newman
KW - AA01-001
KW - AARD
KW - CERTS
KW - System Security Tools
AB - As power system loading increases, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. We investigate a critical loading at which the average size of blackouts increases sharply to examine whether the probability distribution of blackout sizes shows the power tails observed in real blackout data. Three different models are used, including two simulations of cascading outages in electric power transmission systems. We also derive and use a new, analytically solvable model of probabilistic cascading failure which represents the progressive system weakening as the cascade proceeds.
DO - 10.1109/HICSS.2002.993975
ER -
TY - CONF
T1 - An Initial Complex Systems Analysis of the Risks of Blackouts in Power Transmission Systems
T2 - Conference on Power Systems and Communications Infrastructures for the Future
Y1 - 2002/09//
SP - 7
A1 - Ian Dobson
A1 - David E. Newman
A1 - Benjamin A. Carreras
A1 - Vickie E. Lynch
KW - AA01-001
KW - AARD
KW - System Security Tools
AB - Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. In particular, electric power blackouts have cascading effects on other vital infrastructures. While it is useful to analyze the detailed causes of individual blackouts, in this paper we focus on the intrinsic dynamics of series of blackouts and how this complex system dynamics impacts the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. Indeed, the mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care.
JF - Conference on Power Systems and Communications Infrastructures for the Future
CY - Beijing, China
UR - http://iandobson.ece.iastate.edu/PAPERS/dobsonCRIS02.pdf
ER -