The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability distribution of the real-time LMP/congestion is obtained. The proposed method incorporates load/generation forecast, time varying operation constraints, and contingency models. By shifting the computation associated with multiparametric programs offline, the online computational cost is significantly reduced. An online simulation technique by generating critical regions dynamically is also proposed, which results in several orders of magnitude improvement in the computational cost over standard Monte Carlo methods.

10aRM13-0021 aJi, Yuting1 aThomas, Robert, J.1 aTong, Lang uhttps://certs.lbl.gov/publications/probabilistic-forecasting-real-time01319nas a2200181 4500008003900000245007600039210006900115260002900184520065000213653001000863653003200873653002800905653001300933100001500946700002300961700001500984856013800999 2015 d00aProbabilistic Forecast of Real-Time LMP via Multiparametric Programming0 aProbabilistic Forecast of RealTime LMP via Multiparametric Progr aKauai, HIbIEEEc01/20153 aThe problem of short-term probabilistic forecast of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) is considered. A new forecast technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability mass function of the real-time LMP is estimated using Monte Carlo techniques. The proposed methodology incorporates uncertainty models such as load and stochastic generation forecasts and system contingency models. With the use of offline computation of multiparametric linear programming, online computation cost is significantly reduced.10aCERTS10alocational marginal pricing10areliability and markets10aRM13-0021 aJi, Yuting1 aThomas, Robert, J.1 aTong, Lang uhttp://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=7070121&refinements%3D4260156971%26filter%3DAND%28p_IS_Number%3A7069647%29