01719nas a2200217 4500008003900000020002200039245006700061210006700128260003500195300001000230520100800240653002401248653002701272653002601299653002801325653001301353653001501366100002401381700002201405856007401427 2009 d a978-1-4244-4241-600aEstimating the system costs of wind power forecast uncertainty0 aEstimating the system costs of wind power forecast uncertainty aCalgary, CanadabIEEEc07/2009 a1 - 43 aUncertainty in forecasts of wind power generation raises concerns of integrating wind power into power system operations and electricity markets at acceptable costs. The analysis presented in this paper uses an optimal power flow (OPF) model in a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework to estimate the additional cost of power system operation with uncertain output from a wind farm. A base case dispatch is established along with alternate dispatches based upon a probability distribution of real time wind power generation. The cost of the uncertainty in wind power forecasts is then quantified in terms of the difference in production cost between the base case and the cost for system dispatch under scenarios drawn from the distribution of real time wind power generation. Using various regional load levels and ramp capabilities of other generators, the results from the OPF and MCS show that wind power forecast uncertainty for the test system can increase production cost between 2.5% and 11%.
10aelectricity markets10apower system economics10aPower system modeling10areliability and markets10aRM07-00410awind power1 aCardell, Judith, B.1 aAnderson, Lindsay uhttps://certs.lbl.gov/publications/estimating-system-costs-wind-power