01288nas a2200229 4500008003900000022001400039245006600053210006500119260001200184300001400196490000700210520060600217653002400823653003200847653002800879653001300907100001500920700001600935700002300951700001500974856006900989 2014 d a0885-895000aImpact of Data Quality on Real-Time Locational Marginal Price0 aImpact of Data Quality on RealTime Locational Marginal Price c03/2014 a627 - 6360 v293 aThe problem of characterizing impacts of data quality on real-time locational marginal price (LMP) is considered. Because the real-time LMP is computed from the estimated network topology and system state, bad data that cause errors in topology processing and state estimation affect real-time LMP. It is shown that the power system state space is partitioned into price regions of convex polytopes. Under different bad data models, the worst case impacts of bad data on real-time LMP are analyzed. Numerical simulations are used to illustrate worst case performance for IEEE-14 and IEEE-118 networks.10aelectricity markets10alocational marginal pricing10areliability and markets10aRM11-0031 aJia, Liyan1 aKim, Jinsub1 aThomas, Robert, J.1 aTong, Lang uhttps://certs.lbl.gov/publications/impact-data-quality-real-time01582nas a2200205 4500008003900000245007600039210006900115260004200184300001400226520091200240653001001152653003201162653002801194653001301222100001501235700001601250700002301266700001501289856007201304 2013 d00aForecasting real-time locational marginal price: A state space approach0 aForecasting realtime locational marginal price A state space app aPacific Grove, CA, USAbIEEEc11/2013 a379 - 3833 aThe problem of forecasting the real-time locational marginal price (LMP) by a system operator is considered. A new probabilistic forecasting framework is developed based on a time in-homogeneous Markov chain representation of the realtime LMP calculation. By incorporating real-time measurements and forecasts, the proposed forecasting algorithm generates the posterior probability distribution of future locational marginal prices with forecast horizons of 6-8 hours. Such a short-term forecast provides actionable information for market participants and system operators. A Monte Carlo technique is used to estimate the posterior transition probabilities of the Markov chain, and the real-time LMP forecast is computed by the product of the estimated transition matrices. The proposed forecasting algorithm is tested on the PJM 5-bus system. Simulations show marked improvements over benchmark techniques.10aCERTS10alocational marginal pricing10areliability and markets10aRM13-0021 aJi, Yuting1 aKim, Jinsub1 aThomas, Robert, J.1 aTong, Lang uhttps://certs.lbl.gov/publications/forecasting-real-time-locational01596nas a2200229 4500008003900000022001400039245008100053210006900134260001200203300001600215490000700231520091000238653002701148653002601175653001201201653002801213653001301241653001501254100001601269700001501285856006601300 2013 d a0733-871600aOn Topology Attack of a Smart Grid: Undetectable Attacks and Countermeasures0 aTopology Attack of a Smart Grid Undetectable Attacks and Counter c07/2013 a1294 - 13050 v313 aCovert data attacks on the network topology of a smart grid is considered. In a so-called man-in-the-middle attack, an adversary alters data from certain meters and network switches to mislead the control center with an incorrect network topology while avoiding detections by the control center. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an undetectable attack is obtained for strong adversaries who can observe all meter and network data. For weak adversaries with only local information, a heuristic method of undetectable attack is proposed. Countermeasures to prevent undetectable attacks are also considered. It is shown that undetectable attacks do not exist if a set of meters satisfying a certain branch covering property are protected. The proposed attacks are tested with IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus system, and their effect on real-time locational marginal pricing is examined.10apower system economics10apower system security10apricing10areliability and markets10aRM11-00310asmart grid1 aKim, Jinsub1 aTong, Lang uhttps://certs.lbl.gov/publications/topology-attack-smart-grid