Estimating the system costs of wind power forecast uncertainty

Uncertainty in forecasts of wind power generation raises concerns of integrating wind power into power system operations and electricity markets at acceptable costs. The analysis presented in this paper uses an optimal power flow (OPF) model in a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework to estimate the additional cost of power system operation with uncertain output from a wind farm. A base case dispatch is established along with alternate dispatches based upon a probability distribution of real time wind power generation. The cost of the uncertainty in wind power forecasts is then quantified in terms of the difference in production cost between the base case and the cost for system dispatch under scenarios drawn from the distribution of real time wind power generation. Using various regional load levels and ramp capabilities of other generators, the results from the OPF and MCS show that wind power forecast uncertainty for the test system can increase production cost between 2.5% and 11%.